A Mathematical Model for Mugwort Pollen Forecasts

Diploma thesis of Frank Wolf

at the

University of Paderborn, Germany

January 1994 - April 1995

[Deutsch]

Subject:

	Relevance: Pollen forecasts are a fundamental prerequisite to prophylactic measures for allergic individuals. Mugwort belongs to the most relevant allergologic pollen types after grasses and birch.
	Starting situation: The German weather service, in cooperation with the foundation German pollen information service (in the ADIZ), combined/combines plant observations and airborne pollen measurements with the weather forecast manually to provide the pollen forecast.
	Aim: The intention of the diploma thesis was to rationalize this process by a mathematical model for the airborne pollen content. An approach of modeling mugwort pollen concentrations has not been attempted previously (in Germany).
	The model: A process-oriented mathematical model for the relative local daily average mugwort airborne pollen concentration was developed on the basis of the pollen and weather data from Bad Lippspringe 1988-1993. It depends on the daily minimum and maximum temperature, amount of precipitation and atmospheric pressure above ground. The comparison of modeling results and pollen counting for 1994 confirms the fitness of the model.
	Prediction: A computer program for PC's with Microsoft-Windows 3.1 or higher was written, which rests upon the model and supplies daily predictions (text and figure) of mugwort pollen flight after input of the depending weather parameters from measurement and prediction. The self-made drawing (see above) belongs to the introducing page of the program. The pollen grain is the programs icon and was created on basis of a microscopic photograph of a mugwort pollen grain.
	Download (327 kB): Click on the leftside pollen grain to download the prediction program free of charge. This program is available in german language only.

• The model was presented on the 31st conference of the society for lungs and respiration research in the German society for pneumology at December 7th, 1995 in Bochom, Germany.
The model was presented in detail at October, 24th, 1997 in Bad Lippspringe, Germany, on the occasion of the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the weather station of Bad Lippspringe.

• Wolf, F.; Bergmann, K.-Ch.: Ein mathematisches Modell zur Vorhersage des Beifußpollenfluges. Atemwegs- und Lungenkrankheiten, 22 (6), 1996: pp. 345-346.
• Wolf, F.; Puls, K. E.; Bergmann, K.-Ch.: A mathematical modell for mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris L.) pollen forecasts. Aerobiologia, 14 (4), 1998: pp. 359-373.