[Drawing of Artemisia vulgaris]

A Mathematical Model for Mugwort Pollen Forecasts

Diploma thesis of Frank Wolf

at the

University of Paderborn, Germany

January 1994 - April 1995

pollen grain pollen grain pollen grain



item Relevance:
Pollen forecasts are a fundamental prerequisite to prophylactic measures for allergic individuals. Mugwort belongs to the most relevant allergologic pollen types after grasses and birch.
item Starting situation:
The German weather service, in cooperation with the foundation German pollen information service (in the ADIZ), combined/combines plant observations and airborne pollen measurements with the weather forecast manually to provide the pollen forecast.
item Aim:
The intention of the diploma thesis was to rationalize this process by a mathematical model for the airborne pollen content. An approach of modeling mugwort pollen concentrations has not been attempted previously (in Germany).
item The model:
A process-oriented mathematical model for the relative local daily average mugwort airborne pollen concentration was developed on the basis of the pollen and weather data from Bad Lippspringe 1988-1993. It depends on the daily minimum and maximum temperature, amount of precipitation and atmospheric pressure above ground. The comparison of modeling results and pollen counting for 1994 confirms the fitness of the model.
item Prediction:
A computer program for PC's with Microsoft-Windows 3.1 or higher was written, which rests upon the model and supplies daily predictions (text and figure) of mugwort pollen flight after input of the depending weather parameters from measurement and prediction.
The self-made drawing (see above) belongs to the introducing page of the program. The pollen grain is the programs icon and was created on basis of a microscopic photograph of a mugwort pollen grain.
Click here to download the program. Download (327 kB):
Click on the leftside pollen grain to download the prediction program free of charge. This program is available in german language only.


Last change: June, 10th 2001 Accesses since January, 31th 2000: